What is more likely is that, as Dr Robert Ebel stated (Robert Ebel Speech), demand for oil is likely to fall before supply runs out.  While certain, developing regions of the world (China, the Third World) may increase there demand for oil, it is likely that the developed world will begin to reduce it's demand for oil sometime in the next 10-15 years.  Indeed, many predict that oil production has already peaked in the year 2000 (Harf, 1986, p65).  The increasing government taxation on fuel, combined with subsidies and incentives aimed at encouraging research into cleaner fuels, will also contribute to the decline of demand in the developed world.

In terms of Global Security, the future is uncertain.  In terms of Economic Security, the price of oil is likely to fluctuate in accordance with the situation in the Middle East.  Any constriction of demand, in reaction to political tensions, is likely to force prices up.  In the long term, however, many companies are likely to begin investing in new technologies and cleaner uses of petroleum.  This is due to the huge economic potential in unlocking future energy supplies.  It would be unsurprising if oil's eventual 'replacement(s)' were to emerge from this research.

In terms of Environmental Security the picture is not so promising.  Air pollution is widespread in many regions of the world, especially in major urban areas.  It is a clear problem and, despite some efforts at a domestic level by various governments, this situation is deteriorating.  This is primarily because environmental problems are global in nature.  Hence a lack of international agreement and cooperation has hampered attempts to deal with this problem.  This is very shortsighted on the part of the major nations.  They use uncertainty over the exact nature of global warming as an excuse for doing nothing.  This stance is taken due to the huge costs involved in cleaning up the environment, costs that would be shouldered by powerful economic interests.  However, in the long run, these costs will only increase.

This links us with Political Security.  While economic interests have far greater political leverage than environmental interests at the moment, this will slowly change.  As the environment worsens, environmental groups will gain more and more influence.  Eventually, this will position environmental issues at the heart of the political agenda.  In addition, the Middle East will continue to be a focal point of western diplomacy.  America will continue to be heavily immersed in the Arab/Israeli peace process in order to prevent further tensions and, hence, higher oil prices.  The legacy of the Gulf War, however, means that in the future it is very unlikely that any gulf nation will attempt to gain control of oil reserves through force.

Overall, The Oil Dilemma is not a question of the world running out of oil, or of oil supply abruptly stopping.  Rather it is the question of an orderly transfer from oil to a cleaner, less finite source of fuel.  While the process is basically inevitable, how smoothly this process unfolds will have far reaching consequences for the whole planet.  Today it is hard to tell just how smooth that transition will be.