As far as the total world reserves of oil are concerned, numbers vary.  Projections range from 967.5 billion barrels to 1.033 trillion barrels (Energy Information Administration).  In 1996 the definite figure of known reserves was 1.047 trillion barrels (OPEC), so the projections above are fairly accurate.  Total reserves by continent are displayed in Table 1 (Energy Information Administration) below.  What is important to remember about this oil is that, while these reserves are massive, they are not evenly distributed.  OPEC, for instance, controls 801.9 billion barrels of the 1996 world total - 76.6% (OPEC).  Furthermore, 2/3 of all reserves reside in the Middle East.  This maldistribution obviously creates a huge disparity, handing the majority of the world's oil into the control of a few countries and is highlighted in Image 1 below:
 
 
 
 
 

On top of these known reserves, there is an unknown amount of undiscovered oil.  In early November, I was privileged to attend a speech by Robert Ebel, the Director of the Energy and National Security Project (Robert Ebel Speech).  He forecasted that, through various geological surveys, there was still around 4 times the amount of oil mined so far still to be discovered.  Other estimates tend to range from 304 billion barrels to 1.047 trillion barrels yet to be discovered (Fried, 1993, p23).  In addition, it is estimated that another 1 trillion barrels can be used from extraction from non conventional sources, such as tar pits in Venezuela (Fried, 1993, p24).  These figures clearly discredit the myth that oil will begin to run out in the next 20-30 years.
 
 

Another issue is world demand.  In 1996, oil demand around the globe was 71.7 million barrels a day (OPEC).  According to these same statistics, oil demand will probably rise to 100 million barrels a day by 2020, with an increase of 1-3% a year.  The reasons for this increase is the ongoing industrialization and modernization in developing regions of the world. In the future, China, the former Soviet Union, Africa and  Latin America are likely to increase their share of oil consumption in order to modernize.  In contrast, developed, western nations are likely to see their consumption drop as new technologies and restrictions lower demand.  In addition, with the rising force of the environmental movement worldwide, demand could drop sooner when this interest group gains serious political leverage.

Table 2 (Energy Information Administration) shows the oil demand per day of the leading nations over the past decade and highlights the gradual increase that was noted above.
 
 

As we can see from the above, it is unlikely that demand for oil is likely to increase to the stage where the worlds (still plentiful) reserves are exhausted.