Maine Business Index
Maine Business Indicators
The Maine Business Index has been level for the past several months. This is not a positive
sign since the national economy has shown a modest upward trend in the same period. Weak
areas include construction and retail sales, while the service industry is relatively strong. Our
forecast of the Maine Business Index suggests that the state's economy will remain relatively flat
through the first quarter of 1997.
Personal income figures released in July 1996 supports this observation of poor performance.
From the last quarter of 1995 to the first quarter of 1996, Maine's personal income grew by 0.9%
. In the same period, personal income in the United States grew by 1.2% and Maine ranked 40th
of the fifty states in the percent change in personal income. The result is a downward pressure on
our ranking of per capita personal income, currently 34th in the nation. Looking at the
components of personal income, earnings from employment grew by 0.6%, dividends, rent and
interest grew by 0.2%, and transfer payments grew by 2.1%. The fact that the growth in transfer
payments was so high relative to the other components is not a good sign.
On the other hand (the well-known mantra of economists) Maine's employment figures are
reasonably positive. Its unemployment rate is below the national average, the number of jobs has
increased in the last year, and the number of unemployed has declined. Furthermore, the average
duration of the unemployed receiving unemployment compensation has declined in the past year.
The seeming inconsistency of encouraging employment data and discouraging income data has
baffled a number of our region's economists and is a topic worthy of further investigation. One
area that has shown strong employment growth is social services, and this may be consistent with
the growth in transfer payments.
Among the Labor Market Areas within the state, those in southern Maine have the lowest
unemployment rates while those in northern and downeast Maine have the highest rates.
If one were forced to make a choice between the positive picture painted by employment data
or the negative picture painted by income (and other data not discussed here), the economist, as a
member of the dismal science, would go for the gloomy option. I think we are in for a rough
patch for awhile.
R.C.M.
MAINE BUSINESS INDEX
|
|
| 1995
| 1996
|
| 1987 = 100
| APR
| MAY
| JUN
| APR
| MAY
| JUN
|
| Composite
| 109.5
| 107.3
| 108.8
| 104.6
| 107.9
| 107.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Truck freight on Turnpike 1
| 143.3
| 154.5
| 145.8
| 150.4
| 154.8
| 150.0
|
| Automobiles on Turnpike 1
| 124.5
| 122.9
| 127.8
| 124.7
| 128.9
| 128.4
|
| Construction employment 2
| 75.5
| 76.2
| 75.0
| 73.1
| 74.3
| 72.7
|
| Manufacturing production 2
| 101.0
| 100.7
| 101.2
| 100.4
| 102.7
| 101.3
|
| Fish landings 3
| 125.2
| 101.0
| 109.9
| 143.3
| 110.4
| 117.9
|
| Electricity sales 4
| 97.3
| 108.8
| 104.1
| 99.6
| 106.0
| 103.3
|
| Agricultural sales 5
| 106.5
| 108.1
| 114.3
| 96.8
| 92.9
| 90.0
|
| Hotel and motel receipts 6
| 115.0
| 102.8
| 120.7
| 111.8
| 112.4
| 119.8
|
| State government expenditures 6
| 141.2
| 122.0
| 123.8
| 98.8
| 110.2
| 120.2
|
| Retail sales, less motel receipts 6
| 89.1
| 91.4
| 91.0
| 93.3
| 94.0
| 90.4
|
| Total deposits 7
| 96.6
| 96.3
| 96.0
| 95.3
| 95.2
| 95.1
|
| SOURCES: 1 Maine Turnpike Authority;
2 Maine Department of Labor;
3 National Marine Fisheries Service;
4 Central Maine Power Company;
5 U.S. Department of Agriculture;
6 Maine Department of Finance and Administration;
7 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. |
FORECAST GRAPH OF THE MAINE
BUSINESS INDEX
RETROSPECTIVE GRAPH OF THE
MAINE
BUSINESS INDEX
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