An Update on Population Changes in Maine and New England

by Stanley M. Max, Assistant Editor, Maine Business Indicators, and Robert C. McMahon, Associate Professor of Economics, School of Business, University of Southern Maine

As it does every year, the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, has released population estimates. The latest data shows population estimates for July 1, 1995, which can therefore be compared against the actual (and corrected) census data of April 1, 1990.

Table 1 shows that, over the last five years, Maine's population has grown much more slowly than that of the United States as a whole. Indeed, the U.S. population has increased at a rate more than five times Maine's.

New England itself has experienced a considerably slower population growth rate than has the United States, although with significant differences among the New England states. Within this region, New Hampshire and Vermont had the greatest gains. Far behind them were Maine and Massachusetts, which grew by about 1%. Connecticut and Rhode Island experienced actual population declines in the first half of the 1990s.

Considerable variability of population growth has occurred within the metropolitan areas of New England, as shown in Table 2. Barnstable-Yarmouth, Massachusetts, has experienced an impressive growth rate, but most of the other metropolitan area growth has occurred in northern New England, such as in Burlington, whose growth rate slightly exceeded that of the nation as a whole. By New England standards, Portland's 2.2% rate is striking, especially when compared with the actual population declines elsewhere in New England. By the standards of the entire country, however, Portland's growth rate was below the national average.

Within Maine, as within New England, substantial variation exists, as Table 3 shows. Most spectacular on the downside has been Aroostook County, whose population, which includes those in the armed forces, declined a staggering 9.5%. Since the New England population registered a 0.8% increase, the drop in Aroostook's population -- probably Maine's premiere agricultural region -- is particularly noteworthy. Because much of this population decline was a result of the Loring Air Force Base closure, it is unlikely that this rate of decline will be sustained. Furthermore, alternative uses of Loring's facilities will attract some new workers to offset those leaving. Waldo County's outstanding 8.1% gain is due, in large part, to a growing population of early retirees.

Our forecasts indicate that, while Maine's population will increase, it will do so at a relatively slow rate. Moreover, the southern counties will grown more rapidly than the northern counties..

	1990	1995	% change
United States	248,718	262,755	5.6
New England	13,207	13,312	0.8
Northern New England	2,900	2,974	2.6
Maine	1,228	1,241	1.1
New Hampshire	1,109	1,148	3.5
Vermont	563	585	3.9
Southern New England	10,306	10,339	0.3
Connecticut	3,287	3,275	-0.4
Massachusetts	6,016	6,074	1.0
Rhode Island	1,003	990	-1.3

	1990	1995	% change
Bangor, ME	146,601	145,905	-0.5
Barnstable-Yarmouth, MA	186,605	199,804	7.1
Boston-Worcester-Lawrence-Lowell-Brockton, MA-NH	5,685,763	5,768,968	1.5
Burlington, VT	177,059	188,175	6.3
Hartford, CT	1,123,678	1,115,223	-0.8
Lewiston-Auburn, ME	105,259	103,751	-1.4
New Haven-Bridgeport-Stamford-Waterford-Danbury, CT	1,631,864	1,625,513	-0.4
New London, CT	254,957	250,404	-1.8
Pittsfield, MA	139,352	135,743	-2.6
Portland, ME	243,135	248,526	2.2
Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket, RI	946,270	907,801	-0.9
Springfield, MA	602,878	583,587	-1.7

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