This may turn out to be a Happy New Year for the Maine economy. The overall situation seems fairly healthy, thanks, in very large part, to a vigorous national economy.
The twelve-month moving average of the Maine Business Index continues its modest increase. The fact that the growth rate is only modest partly reflects a slow population rise. Additionally, Maine's low unemployment rate can restrict economic expansion since needed and available workers are in short supply. Slow growth is not necessarily undesirable. A rapid advance cannot be maintained, and it is often precedes a decline in economic activity. By contrast, slow progress establishes a solid and sustainable base.
Our forecast of the Maine Business Index indicates that we will continue this growth pattern. The service and construction sectors will be strong, while manufacturing will increase a bit. The other sectors will remain rather steady.
The labor force numbers indicate a reasonably positive picture. The unemployment figures for the state are below the national average. As usual, southern Maine has very low unemployment rates while the rest of the state is higher. However, no labor-market-area has double-digit employment.
In the past year, Maine's total civilian labor force has declined by several thousand while, in the same period, the subcategory of nonfarm wage and salary employment has increased by about 12,000. The difference between these two groups is that the former includes the latter plus agricultural workers, unpaid family workers, domestics, the self-employed, and workers involved in labor disputes. The cyclical and seasonal changes in the numbers of those workers who are not in wage and salary employment will be the subject of a future article.
It appears that 1998 will be a positive one for the Maine economy. The staff at Maine Business Indicators and the Center for Business and Economic Research extend the wish that 1998 will also be positive for our readers.
R.C.M .
Business Forecast Systems
68 Leonard Street
Belmont, MA 02178
Tel.: 617-484-5050
http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/forecastpro
1995 |
1996 |
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1987 = 100 |
Raw DataUnits |
Assigned Weights |
JUL |
AUG |
SEP |
JUL |
AUG |
SEP |
MAINE BUSINESS INDEX(Composite) |
106.6 |
108.5 |
104.9 |
112.2 |
111.4 |
111.8 |
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Truck freight on Turnpike <1> |
(tons) |
2.0% |
154.4 |
149.2 |
149.5 |
172.0 |
160.2 |
163.9 |
Automobiles on Turnpike <1> |
(number) |
26.9% |
123.3 |
131.4 |
124.2 |
134.0 |
136.7 |
132.9 |
Construction employment <2> |
(workers) |
6.6% |
74.4 |
74.9 |
75.2 |
81.1 |
81.7 |
81.8 |
Manufacturing production <2> |
(hours) |
20.6% |
98.0 |
99.8 |
100.3 |
104.6 |
107.7 |
106.8 |
Fish landings <3> |
(pounds) |
0.6% |
142.9 |
153.1 |
163.5 |
125.2 |
133.8 |
138.6 |
Electricity sales <4> |
(kwh) |
3.2% |
104.4 |
107.9 |
113.5 |
104.2 |
108.9 |
109.2 |
Agricultural sales <5> |
(1982 $) |
1.3% |
90.8 |
102.2 |
91.9 |
104.9 |
109.1 |
109.0 |
Hotel and motel receipts <6> |
(1982-84 $) |
1.0% |
113.4 |
114.1 |
103.2 |
126.1 |
124.8 |
101.1 |
State government expenditures <6> |
(1987 $) |
13.0% |
115.6 |
109.8 |
106.1 |
112.2 |
100.5 |
115.6 |
Retail sales, less motel receipts <6> |
(1982-84 $) |
18.3% |
96.4 |
95.5 |
88.5 |
100.1 |
96.7 |
95.3 |
Total deposits <7> |
(1987 $) |
6.5% |
93.9 |
93.8 |
93.7 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
94.7 |
SOURCES: <1> Maine Turnpike Authority; <2> Maine Department of Labor; <3> National Marine Fisheries Service; <4> Central Maine Power Company; <5> U.S. Department of Agriculture; <6> Maine Department of Finance and Administration; <7> Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. |
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