The Maine Business Index's twelve-month moving average tells us that the Maine economy is still growing at about a two-percent annual rate. While that is not spectacular, the movement is nevertheless in a positive direction. The Index forecast is for a continuation of this pattern of very modest growth.
The labor market picture is similarly positive. In the period of October 1995 to October 1996, employment grew at a rate slightly higher than that of the rest of the United States. The unemployment rate declined in that same interval from 4.7% to 4.2%, and it was significantly below that of the nation as a whole. Among the counties, the October 1996 unemployment rates ranged from 2.4% in Cumberland County to 7.4% in Washington County. The fact that no counties and no Labor Market Areas (LMAs) had double-digit unemployment is encouraging. There is even some concern about possible shortages in certain LMAs. Kittery-York, with an unemployment rate of 1.3%, and Portland, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, are likely candidates.
This is not, however, a time to be smug. Personal income in Maine is growing very slowly. In the
second quarter of 1996, the latest period reported, Maine's personal income grew by only 0.9%
compared to the national growth of 1.7%. Only Wyoming had a lower rate of growth. Although
some of this could be explained by a slower-than-average population growth, the fact is that, on a
per capita basis, we are losing ground relative to the rest of the country. Low unemployment rates
do not tell us that our higher-paying jobs are often replaced by lower-paying ones. A major
long-term objective should be to reverse this trend, and that will be a very difficult task.
R.C.M.
MAINE BUSINESS INDEX | ||||||||
| 1995 | 1996 | |||||||
| 1987 = 100 | Raw Data Units | Assigned Weights | JUL | AUG | SEP | JUL | AUG | SEP |
| Composite index | 104.7 | 108.8 | 109.0 | 107.3 | 115.9 | 105.7 | ||
| Truck freight on Turnpike1 | (tons) | 2.1% | 142.0 | 150.6 | 142.9 | 154.4 | 149.2 | 149.5 |
| Automobiles on Turnpike1 | (number) | 26.4% | 122.8 | 123.7 | 127.2 | 123.3 | 131.4 | 124.2 |
| Construction employment2 | (workers) | 6.5% | 75.4 | 76.3 | 77.9 | 74.4 | 74.9 | 75.2 |
| Manufacturing production2 | (kWh) | 21.3% | 100.8 | 99.9 | 101.6 | 101.2 | 103.1 | 103.7 |
| Fish landings3 | (1982 $) | 0.7% | 77.5 | 150.9 | 213.0 | 112.1 | 135.4 | 134.4 |
| Electricity sales4 | (1982-84 $) | 3.1% | 112.7 | 105.7 | 111.2 | 104.4 | 107.9 | 113.5 |
| Agricultural sales5 | (1987 $) | 1.4% | 100.7 | 104.0 | 98.3 | 87.9 | 92.6 | 87.6 |
| Hotel and motel receipts6 | (1982-84 $) | 1.0% | 109.8 | 104.8 | 119.7 | 113.4 | 114.1 | 103.2 |
| State government expenditures6 | (1987 $) | 13.1% | 108.8 | 127.5 | 118.2 | 117.8 | 163.0 | 108.2 |
| Retail sales, less motel receipts6 | (1982-84 $) | 18.2% | 87.8 | 93.9 | 91.7 | 96.4 | 95.5 | 88.5 |
| Total deposits7 | (1987 $) | 6.3% | 96.1 | 95.8 | 95.8 | 93.5 | 93.4 | 93.3 |
| SOURCES: 1Maine Turnpike Authority; 2Maine Department of Labor; 3National Marine Fisheries Service; 4Central Maine Power company; 5U.S. Department of Agriculture; 6Maine Department of Finance and Administration; 7Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. | ||||||||
