Name ____________________________
OPINION QUESTIONNAIRE
INSTRUCTIONS: Read the following three situations. The central person in each situation must choose between two courses of action, one of which is more risky than the other but also more rewarding if successful. For each situation, indicate the lowest probability of success you would accept before recommending that the potentially more rewarding alternative be chosen. The probabilities available range from 1 out of 10 to 10 out of 10, where choosing 10 is a refusal to recommend the risky alternative, no matter how high its likelihood of success. Submit this via Drop Box or e-mail to Lenny.
Situation 1: What probability of success is necessary in order to accept the alternative in the following situation? You may stay in the English class in which you preregistered and, given the teacher's past performance, be assured a grade of B, or you may switch to another class with a more exciting teacher whose past grading record indicates no assurance of any particular grade. Given the situation, you might say to yourself, "If the chances are 1 in 10 of receiving at least a B in the more exciting class, I would make the switch." At the other extreme, you might say to yourself, "I would not make the switch unless the chances are 10 in 10 of receiving a B. I have to be guaranteed success." Somewhere in the middle of these extremes is the position, "If the chances are 5 in 10 of receiving at least a B in the more exciting class, I would make the change."
The lowest probability of success I would be willing to assume is _________ in 10.
Situation 2: A person of moderate means may invest some money s/he recently inherited in secure "blue chip," low return securities or in more risky securities that offer the possibility of large gains.
The lowest probability of success I would be willing to assume is _______ in 10.
Situation 3: A captain of a football team, in the final seconds of the game with the college's traditional rival, may choose a play that is almost certain to produce a tie score, or a more risky play that would lead to sure victory if successful, sure defeat if not.
The lowest probability of success I would be willing to
assume is _______ in 10.