MAINE BUSINESS INDEX

"Exciting" is not a term that could be used to describe the current or the near-term future economy of Maine. We seem to be plodding along, perhaps wondering if we are in a forgotten backwater of the national economy. Now, that may not be a terrible situation in which to find ourselves, since excitement could occur with either dramatic upturns or dramatic downturns, and neither seem to be in our future.

The Maine Business Index continues to exhibit its laborious and very slow long-term real growth. In the past year the economy grew at a rate of slightly over 2%, which is below the national rate of a little more than 3%. Good performances occurred in the Services and Construction industries. Retail sales appear to have leveled off in that period.

Our forecast of the Maine Business Index is that the state economy will exhibit no growth in the first three quarters of 1997. None of our eleven components will feature significant swings in activity.

The employment-unemployment picture looks good. The number of jobs has increased, and the unemployment rate is down from last year and below the national rate. Geographical disparities, however, continue. The economic picture in the southern part of the state is quite rosy with very low unemployment rates. Some of the Labor Market Areas in Northern and Downeast Maine have unemployment rates twice the state average.

Maine's Personal Income in the third quarter of 1996 grew at 1.3%, slightly below the national rate of 1.4%. For that period, state Personal Income in Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, and Financial Services grew at rates considerably more than the national average. Given our slower-than-average population growth, our per-capita-personal-income picture is less severely impacted.

So, where does this leave the regional economist? It is a quiet time. Nothing significantly good or bad on the horizon. The phone isn't ringing, and we are not the center of attention at parties. At least the accountants have their tax forms.

R.C.M.

1995
1996
1987 = 100
Raw Data
Units
Assigned Weights
OCT
NOV
DEC
OCT
NOV
DEC
MAINE BUSINESS INDEX
(Composite)
106.6
107.0
102.8
109.2
111.3
110.4
Truck freight on Turnpike <1>
(tons)
2.1%
149.6
149.8
142.7
158.1
148.2
154.2
Automobiles on Turnpike <1>
(number)
26.4%
125.3
124.7
120.5
129.3
132.2
136.0
Construction employment <2>
(workers)
6.5%
78.6
81.2
76.7
76.5
76.2
77.2
Manufacturing production <2>
(hours)
21.3%
98.9
99.6
99.8
101.0
102.9
103.4
Fish landings <3>
(pounds)
0.7%
176.3
128.2
127.1
150.5
149.7
148.0
Electricity sales <4>
(kwh)
3.1%
102.0
103.7
104.7
109.6
107.6
112.8
Agricultural sales <5>
(1982 $)
1.4%
109.3
90.6
106.6
96.6
94.0
98.5
Hotel and motel receipts <6>
(1982-84 $)
1.0%
112.9
102.3
114.7
116.3
121.0
105.3
State government expenditures <6>
(1987 $)
13.1%
112.9
113.5
96.1
114.1
124.1
115.3
Retail sales, less motel receipts <6>
(1982-84 $)
18.2%
89.2
93.6
89.7
96.3
95.8
89.8
Total deposits <7>
(1987 $)
6.3%
96.0
95.8
95.6
94.3
94.2
94.2
     SOURCES: <1> Maine Turnpike Authority; <2> Maine Department of Labor; <3> National Marine Fisheries Service; <4> Central Maine Power Company; <5> U.S. Department of Agriculture; <6> Maine Department of Finance and Administration; <7> Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
FORECAST GRAPH OF THE MAINE BUSINESS INDEX

RETROSPECTIVE GRAPH OF THE MAINE BUSINESS INDEX